ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PENGANGGURAN TERDIDIK DI PROVINSI JAWA TIMUR

Abstract

This study aims to examine the effect of economic growth, the district/city minimum wage (UMK), the labor force participation rate (LFPR), mean years of schooling, and age on educated unemployment in seven regencies/cities with the highest levels of educated unemployment in East Java Province (Madiun City, Mojokerto City, Malang City, Surabaya City, Sidoarjo Regency, Kediri City, and Blitar City) during the 2020-2025 period, using a quantitative approach with panel data regression analysis based on secondary data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) processed with Eviews 12. Based on model specification tests (Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier tests), the Common Effect Model (CEM) was selected as the most appropriate model, and the results show that the five independent variables simultaneously have a significant effect on educated unemployment (F-statistic 26.49988; probability 0.000000; R2 of 0.786349 or 78.63%), while partially the labor force participation rate has a negative and significant effect, mean years of schooling and age have a positive and significant effect, and economic growth and the minimum wage have a negative but insignificant effect, so that the findings of this study are expected to serve as useful input for local governments and relevant stakeholders in formulating more effective policies to reduce educated unemployment in East Java Province.