PENGARUH EPS GROWTH, ROE, DAN PER TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM DENGAN GROWTH HARGA BATU BARA NEWCASTLE SEBAGAI VARIABEL MODERASI

Abstract

This study examines the effects of Earnings Per Share (EPS) Growth, Return on Equity (ROE), and Price Earnings Ratio (PER) on the stock returns of coal-producing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the 2020–2024 period. In addition, this study investigates whether Newcastle coal price growth moderates the relationship between the companies’ fundamental performance and stock returns. The research employs a quantitative approach using secondary data obtained from annual financial statements, stock price data, and Newcastle coal price data. The sample was selected using purposive sampling, while the analytical methods consisted of panel data regression and Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA). The findings reveal that EPS Growth, ROE, and PER have a positive and significant effect on stock returns, indicating that investors respond favorably to improvements in corporate profitability, financial performance, and market valuation. Furthermore, Newcastle coal price growth significantly moderates the relationship between EPS Growth and stock returns by weakening the effect, suggesting that external commodity market conditions influence investors’ responses to earnings growth. However, Newcastle coal price growth does not significantly moderate the effects of ROE and PER on stock returns. These findings highlight the importance of integrating firm-specific financial indicators with external commodity price dynamics when evaluating investment decisions in the coal mining sector. The study contributes to the capital market literature by providing empirical evidence on the interaction between internal corporate fundamentals and external commodity market conditions in an emerging market.