Analisis Determinan Ketimpangan Pembangunan Ekonomi Antar Wilayah di Kawasan Gerbangkertosusila

Abstract

This study analyzes the determinants of inter-regional economic inequality in the 

Gerbangkertosusila metropolitan area of East Java, Indonesia, covering seven 

districts and cities over the period 2016–2025. Economic inequality is measured 

using the Williamson Index, which recorded values ranging from 0.801 to 0.870 

throughout the observation period, indicating persistently high inequality. The 

independent variables examined include gross regional domestic product (GRDP) 

per capita, population size, investment realization, open unemployment rate, and 

mean years of schooling. This study employs a quantitative approach using panel 

data regression, with model selection determined through the Chow Test and 

Hausman Test, both of which confirmed the Fixed Effect Model as the most 

appropriate estimator. Classical assumption tests for multicollinearity, 

heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation were conducted and all assumptions were 

satisfied. The estimation results indicate that GRDP per capita, population, and 

mean years of schooling have a significant positive effect on economic inequality, 

while investment and the open unemployment rate are statistically insignificant. The 

positive effect of mean years of schooling suggests that unequal educational 

attainment across districts accelerates brain drain toward the urban core, thereby 

widening rather than reducing regional disparities. These findings are consistent 

with Kuznets's (1955) inverted-U hypothesis, Myrdal's (1957) cumulative causation 

theory, and the Harris–Todaro (1970) migration model. The study contributes 

empirical evidence to support more spatially equitable regional development policy 

in metropolitan areas.