PENGARUH INVESTASI, TENAGA KERJA, EKSPOR, IMPOR DAN TENAGA KERJA TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI JAWA TIMUR

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of investment, labor, exports, imports, and government expenditure on the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of East Java Province for the period 2011–2024. A quantitative approach employing multiple linear regression (Ordinary Least Squares) was applied to annual time series data sourced from BPS East Java, BKPM, and the Directorate General of Fiscal Balance (DJPK) of the Ministry of Finance. Classical assumption tests including normality (Jarque-Bera), autocorrelation (Breusch-Godfrey LM Test), heteroscedasticity (Glejser), and multicollinearity (VIF)  were all satisfied. Estimation results indicate that all independent variables simultaneously exert a significant effect on GRDP, with an F-statistic of 18.7517 (prob. 0.0003) and an R-squared of 0.9214. Partially, only labor demonstrates a positive and significant effect on GRDP (coefficient 0.167; prob. 0.0086), while investment, exports, imports, and government expenditure show no significant partial effect. These findings imply that enhancing the quality and quantity of the labor force is the primary determinant of East Java's economic growth, and that optimization of investment realization and reorientation of government spending toward more productive sectors are essential policy priorities.