PENGARUH BELANJA PEMERINTAH, INFLASI, NILAI TUKAR, EKSPOR, DAN PENANAMAN MODAL ASING TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA

Authors

  • Hawa Nabila Atsa Universitas Islam Negeri Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta
  • Agna Diandra Aulia Universitas Islam Negeri Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta
  • Rakha Athaya Tiyar Universitas Islam Negeri Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta
  • Hanatul Zahra Universitas Islam Negeri Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta
  • Muhammad Kafi Universitas Islam Negeri Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta
  • Naila Amalia Ramadhani Universitas Islam Negeri Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta
  • Fitri Amalia Universitas Islam Negeri Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.23969/jp.v11i2.56033

Keywords:

economic growth, government spending, inflation, exchange rate, exports, FDI, ARDL

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the short-run and long-run effects of government spending, inflation, exchange rate, exports, and foreign direct investment (FDI) on Indonesia's economic growth over the period 1995-2024. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and Error Correction Model (ECM) with annual time-series data from the World Bank, the study finds that government spending and FDI positively and significantly affect economic growth in the long run, while the exchange rate exerts a significant negative effect. Inflation and exports show statistically insignificant effects in the long run. In the short run, government spending has a positive immediate impact but a negative lagged effect, suggesting a crowding-out mechanism. The exchange rate consistently depresses growth in both lag periods. The ECM coefficient of -0.91 confirms that 91% of short-run disequilibrium is corrected within one year. Dummy variables for the 1997-1998 Asian Financial Crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic are included to control for structural shocks.

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Published

2026-06-21

Issue

Vol. 11 No. 2 (2026): Volume 11 No. 02, Juni 2026.

Section

Articles

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