ANALISIS DETERMINAN INFLASI DI INDONESIA: MODEL AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG (ARDL)

Abstract

This research focuses on examining the interactions between fluctuations in the exchange rate, the BI Rate, the money supply, and inflation in Indonesia. It also looks into how the exchange rate, the BI Rate, and the money supply influence the inflation rate in the country. This analysis relies on annual time series data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Bank Indonesia, and other related sources covering the years 2005 to 2024. The model employed is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), which identity to explore both short-term and long-term interrelations among the variables. The findings reveal that the fluctuations in the exchange rate, BI Rate, money supply, and inflation in Indonesia exhibit considerable variation throughout the analyzed period. According to the estimation outcomes, the BI Rate positively and significantly influences inflation in both the short and long term, whereas the money supply ratio to GDP negatively and significantly affects inflation. Conversely, the exchange rate does not influence inflation significantly. Collectively, these three variables have a noteworthy impact on inflation in Indonesia. This study highlights the importance of monetary policy, especially in regard to interest rate and money supply management, in ensuring inflation stability in Indonesia