PERAMALAN JUMLAH KEBUTUHAN AIR BERSIH DENGAN DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING ANALYSIS (STUDI KASUS UPT MA’HAD AL- JAMI’AH UIN RADEN INTAN LAMPUNG)

Authors

  • Puput Nurmawati UIN Raden Intan Lampung
  • Achi Rinaldi UIN Raden Intan Lampung
  • Tatang Julianto UIN Raden Intan Lampung

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.23969/jp.v10i03.34076

Keywords:

Water, Exponential Smoothing, Forecasting,Ma’had al-Jamiah

Abstract

Adequate access to clean water is a crucial necessity, especially for students
(mahasantri) residing at Ma’had al-Jami’ah, a Technical Implementation Unit
(UPT) under UIN Raden Intan Lampung. The increasing number of residents,
uncertainty in water availability, and limited water sources pose significant
challenges in fulfilling clean water needs optimally. Therefore, a quantitative
analysis of clean water demand is essential to determine the daily supply
requirements. This study aims to calculate the daily water needs and forecast
future demands as a basis for more efficient planning. The research employs the
Exponential Smoothing method using R software. To assess forecasting accuracy,
the indicators used include Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean
Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Squared Error (MSE). The findings indicate that
the clean water requirement that must be fulfilled is approximately 0.5079
liters/second/day. The forecasting error values obtained are MAPE at 28.9%, MSE
at 0.01568777, and MAE at 3.893837, which indicate an acceptable level of
accuracy. In conclusion, the need for clean water is directly proportional to the
number of mahasantri residing in the facility. Therefore, the provision of clean
water should be aligned with actual demand data to ensure a more organized and
efficient distribution. This approach supports sustainable water management and
contributes to the overall comfort and health of the dormitory environment.

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Published

2025-10-02

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